Nebius financial model
This Excel financial model of Nebius was built automatically by Skale, an AI tool that builds financial models from financial statements, using 2 published documents. It is a 3-statement model (income statement, balance sheet, cash flow) with 10 projected years, Sep-27E to Sep-36E, across six sheets: Summary, Main, Ratios, Valuation, Support and Schedules, including a DCF valuation. For LTM Sep-26, revenue is $2.2 billion, up 313.3% versus 2025, net income to shareholders is $127.2 million ($0.45 per share), EBITDA margin is 23.7% and net debt is $6.8 billion.
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The first rows of each sheet, as they open in Excel.
Nebius summary financials
USD millions · historical and projected years 2024–2036. From the model's Summary sheet; every projected figure is a formula in the Excel.
| Historical | Projected | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD millions | Unit | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E | 2030E | 2031E | 2032E | 2033E | 2034E | 2035E | 2036E |
| Income statement | ||||||||||||||
| Revenue | USD millions | 91.5 | 529.8 | 2,189.8 | 9,051.0 | 37,410.1 | 154,625.8 | 639,108.3 | 2,641,599.3 | 10,918,410.9 | 45,128,607.6 | 186,528,170.8 | 770,969,022.9 | 3,186,613,752.9 |
| Revenue growth | % | 479.0% | 313.3% | 313.3% | 313.3% | 313.3% | 313.3% | 313.3% | 313.3% | 313.3% | 313.3% | 313.3% | 313.3% | |
| Gross profit | USD millions | 47.8 | 363.6 | 1,664.2 | 6,878.6 | 28,430.9 | 117,512.2 | 485,708.3 | 2,007,557.6 | 8,297,753.0 | 34,296,752.5 | 141,757,321.1 | 585,919,557.9 | 2,421,756,602.2 |
| Gross margin | % | 52.2% | 68.6% | 76.0% | 76.0% | 76.0% | 76.0% | 76.0% | 76.0% | 76.0% | 76.0% | 76.0% | 76.0% | 76.0% |
| EBITDA | USD millions | (322.5) | (192.2) | 519.1 | 2,145.6 | 8,868.2 | 36,654.6 | 151,502.9 | 626,200.7 | 2,588,248.8 | 10,697,899.4 | 44,217,176.7 | 182,760,991.8 | 755,398,300.8 |
| EBITDA margin | % | (352.5%) | (36.3%) | 23.7% | 23.7% | 23.7% | 23.7% | 23.7% | 23.7% | 23.7% | 23.7% | 23.7% | 23.7% | 23.7% |
| EBIT | USD millions | (399.6) | (596.2) | (488.0) | (4,579.7) | (1,591.6) | 23,756.0 | 137,011.7 | 610,669.4 | 2,572,038.5 | 10,681,245.8 | 44,200,233.5 | 182,743,859.7 | 755,381,045.4 |
| EBIT margin | % | (436.7%) | (112.5%) | (22.3%) | (50.6%) | (4.3%) | 15.4% | 21.4% | 23.1% | 23.6% | 23.7% | 23.7% | 23.7% | 23.7% |
| Pre-tax income | USD millions | (353.0) | 33.0 | 112.5 | 6,648.8 | 9,644.7 | 34,350.4 | 138,625.0 | 514,375.6 | 1,502,691.8 | 269,777.7 | (54,727,666.0) | (750,702,953.5) | (8,031,540,342.7) |
| Income taxes | USD millions | (1.0) | 4.0 | (14.7) | (757.7) | (1,099.0) | (3,914.3) | (15,796.8) | (58,614.9) | (171,237.0) | (30,742.1) | 6,236,408.4 | 85,545,220.3 | 915,222,039.1 |
| Effective tax rate | % | 0.3% | 12.1% | (13.1%) | (11.4%) | (11.4%) | (11.4%) | (11.4%) | (11.4%) | (11.4%) | (11.4%) | (11.4%) | (11.4%) | (11.4%) |
| Net income | USD millions | (641.4) | 101.7 | 127.2 | 7,406.5 | 10,743.7 | 38,264.7 | 154,421.8 | 572,990.5 | 1,673,928.7 | 300,519.8 | (60,964,074.4) | (836,248,173.8) | (8,946,762,381.8) |
| Net income to shareholders | USD millions | (641.4) | 101.7 | 127.2 | 7,406.5 | 10,743.7 | 38,264.7 | 154,421.8 | 572,990.5 | 1,673,928.7 | 300,519.8 | (60,964,074.4) | (836,248,173.8) | (8,946,762,381.8) |
| Net margin | % | (701.0%) | 19.2% | 5.8% | 81.8% | 28.7% | 24.7% | 24.2% | 21.7% | 15.3% | 0.7% | (32.7%) | (108.5%) | (280.8%) |
| Earnings per share | per share | 0.45 | 26.05 | 37.78 | 134.57 | 543.08 | 2,015.11 | 5,886.92 | 1,056.88 | (214,400.21) | (2,940,941.65) | (31,464,231.50) | ||
| Cash flow | ||||||||||||||
| Cash flow from operations | USD millions | 1,759.2 | 18,181.1 | (40,639.5) | (795,798.7) | (8,848,605.6) | (88,098,381.2) | (845,968,569.0) | (8,015,685,113.8) | (75,570,758,675.9) | (711,179,992,314.2) | (6,688,704,673,676.6) | ||
| Capex | USD millions | 807.5 | 4,066.0 | 17,486.7 | 17,486.7 | 17,486.7 | 17,486.7 | 17,486.7 | 17,486.7 | 17,486.7 | 17,486.7 | 17,486.7 | 17,486.7 | 17,486.7 |
| Unlevered free cash flow | USD millions | (3,875.2) | (20,879.5) | (30,159.0) | (143,713.5) | (1,107,720.4) | (9,930,205.9) | (91,871,853.3) | (858,196,192.3) | (8,047,082,329.8) | (75,578,248,759.8) | (710,336,995,381.1) | (6,678,331,598,073.5) | |
| FCF margin | % | (731.5%) | (953.5%) | (333.2%) | (384.2%) | (716.4%) | (1553.8%) | (3477.9%) | (7860.1%) | (17831.4%) | (40518.4%) | (92135.6%) | (209574.6%) | |
| Balance sheet | ||||||||||||||
| Cash and cash equivalents | USD millions | 2,434.7 | 3,678.1 | 7,425.6 | 8,120.0 | (50,006.3) | (863,291.7) | (9,729,384.0) | (97,845,251.9) | (943,831,307.5) | (8,959,533,908.0) | (84,530,310,070.6) | (795,710,319,871.5) | (7,484,415,011,034.8) |
| Financial debt | USD millions | 6.1 | 4,127.7 | 14,190.8 | 14,190.8 | 14,190.8 | 14,190.8 | 14,190.8 | 14,190.8 | 14,190.8 | 14,190.8 | 14,190.8 | 14,190.8 | 14,190.8 |
| Lease liabilities | USD millions | 30.3 | 760.5 | 1,768.8 | 1,768.8 | 1,768.8 | 1,768.8 | 1,768.8 | 1,768.8 | 1,768.8 | 1,768.8 | 1,768.8 | 1,768.8 | 1,768.8 |
| Net debt (financial debt − cash) | USD millions | (2,428.6) | 449.6 | 6,765.2 | 6,070.8 | 64,197.1 | 877,482.5 | 9,743,574.8 | 97,859,442.7 | 943,845,498.3 | 8,959,548,098.8 | 84,530,324,261.4 | 795,710,334,062.3 | 7,484,415,025,225.6 |
| Total equity | USD millions | 3,253.7 | 4,594.0 | 12,299.2 | 19,705.7 | 30,449.4 | 68,714.1 | 223,135.9 | 796,126.4 | 2,470,055.2 | 2,770,575.0 | (58,193,499.5) | (894,441,673.2) | (9,841,204,055.0) |
| Balance check (assets − liabilities − equity) | USD millions | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Key ratios | ||||||||||||||
| EBITDA margin | % | (352.5%) | (36.3%) | 23.7% | 23.7% | 23.7% | 23.7% | 23.7% | 23.7% | 23.7% | 23.7% | 23.7% | 23.7% | 23.7% |
| ROIC (EBIT × (1 − t) ÷ average invested capital) | % | (46.6%) | (15.7%) | (3.7%) | (18.9%) | (2.6%) | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| FCF margin | % | (731.5%) | (953.5%) | (333.2%) | (384.2%) | (716.4%) | (1553.8%) | (3477.9%) | (7860.1%) | (17831.4%) | (40518.4%) | (92135.6%) | (209574.6%) | |
| Net debt ÷ EBITDA | x | 7.53x | (2.34x) | 13.03x | 2.83x | 7.24x | 23.94x | 64.31x | 156.27x | 364.67x | 837.51x | 1911.71x | 4353.83x | 9907.91x |
| EBITDA ÷ interest | x | (3.33x) | 1.56x | (0.19x) | (0.80x) | (3.29x) | (13.59x) | (56.18x) | (232.20x) | (959.75x) | (3966.89x) | (16396.18x) | (67769.65x) | |
| Minimum DSCR over the projection | x | 2.64x | ||||||||||||
How revenue is built
Skale reads the documents to decide how each revenue stream is projected, and explains why.
The documents give no operational volume, capacity or segment revenue history, so the best supported build is total revenue growing on its own. The current formula only holds the last value while revenue grows very fast (about 479% in 2025). It is changed to growth with a held growth driver, and a stepped path is added because that pace cannot last.
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